Monday, September 01, 2008

MN-01 : New Poll – Davis versus Day

Ask any Minnesotan who will win this year’s NFL season opener – the Vikings or Packers – and even the casual fan will have an answer. Most likely, it will have a partisan bent …. more heart than head. The casual fan will pick the winner … But the sports junkie will be able to get into the game details and predict the score based on touchdown runs by Adrian Peterson or touchdown tosses by Aaron Rogers.

And as with sports junkies, political junkies can go beyond just who the winner will be in November’s elections.

For this Challenge, there is no sense in asking who will be the next Congressman to represent the Minnesota’s First District as that response would most likely be based on a partisan bent.
But just like pre-season football, the political game has a pre-season … called a primary.

On September 9th, the Republicans candidate will be chosen --- Dr. Brian Davis or State Senator Dick Day.
So here is the Challenge, predict how many votes each candidate will get. Everyone is invited … from bloggers to “casual readers”. The experts probably have access to campaign data driven down to who the likely voters are in each precinct, yet I have a hunch that we “casual” fans will probably get it closer than the experts.

The prize : The ultimate … bragging rights as the Most Knowledgeable Political Junkie in MN-01.

The deadline : Since this is pure prognostication, there is no reason to wait. The winner will be determined based on entries made by SUNDAY, September 7th … just two days prior to the election.

To vote, simply make your forecast for Dr. Davis and Senator Day by clicking how many votes each candiate will get on the “POLL QUESTION” at the top right corner of the home page.

To be eligible for the prize, submit your prognostication by clicking “Post a Comment”. Anonymous entries are welcome … I have no edit requirements on this blog. Pass the link onto other political junkies or just plain old good citizen voters.

For historical data, in 2002 Gil Gutknecht got 25,978 … in 2004 Gutknecht got 17,651 … and in 2006, Gutknecht got 24,725 while his primary challenger got 3,600.

For the record, my projection is that Dr. Davis will get 21,900 votes (or 71%) while Senator Day will get 8,900 (or 29%) of the total 30,800 cast votes.

The choices are :
Davis will get less than 10,000
Davis will get between 10-15,000
Davis will get between 15-20,000
Davis will get between 20-25,000
Davis will get more than 30,000
Day will get less than 5,000
Day will get between 5-10,000
Day will get between 10-15,000
Day will get between 15-20,000
Day will get more than 20,000

Vote once for Davis and once for Day.

Good luck and thanks for participating.


JB said...

It will be a very interesting evening...I think Davis will win comfortably, but not in a blowout. I voted for Day - over 10k, Davis - over 15k. To be a bit more specific, I think Day will be in the 10-12k range with Davis in the 18-20k range. I might be underestimating turnout at around 30-32k total votes. The turnout number will be as interesting to me as the margin of victory.

Ollie Ox said...

JB's probably pretty close. I'm thinking Davis around 16-17,000, with Day about 9-12,000.

Anonymous said...

I think Day will wipe out Davis. Who in the hell has ever heard of the guy let alone seen him? If Davis wins it will be disappointing because it will mean that it doesn't matter if you've been a leader in the state or a guy who's never done anything in the public sector, ever. The only caveat I'd add is if DFLers cross over and vote in the first for Davis because he's the easier target for Walz. I'd be curious to see what DFLers say about that issue.

Anonymous said...

DFLers have a U.S. Senate primary contest, that's what they think. Go Franken!

I agree that Davis will be easier to beat than Day. Heck Randy Demmer would have been a better choice.

Demmer has gotten great press during the national convention. Davis? He looks like a hanger-on.

MinnesotaProgress said...

I voted 20-25k for Davis and 5-10k for Day. I think I'm probably underestimating Day and overestimating Davis but those are my predictions.

To put a exact number on it I'll say 21,806 for Davis and 9,802 for Day.

jb said...

Wow, only 25k turnout; that surprised me a little (considering I guessed 30k+). I don't know how much a person can read into Nov. totals from Sep. results, but I can't imagine it's a good thing to have fewer total Republican votes (albeit slightly) in this year's more contested primary than in Gutknecht's 2006 cakewalk.

Minnesota Central said...

It's official .... Ollie Ox of Bluestem Prairie is Most Knowledgeable Political Junkie in MN-01 .
The final tally is Davis 17,230 ( Ollie estimated 16-17,000) and Day was 8,491 (Ollie projected 9-12,000).

Congratulations, Ollie !